Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?

Question

Will the 12 month average, seasonally unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) go above 3% (YES) before the unemployment rate goes  below 4% (NO)?

In other words, will price increases accelerate before there are more jobs?

Unemployment as of Oct 4 was 4.1%. Numbers are released on the first Friday of every month here.

Inflation is estimated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is released every month. CPI as of September was 2.5%. Trend over time data here.

I’ll extend to the next releases date of each of these numbers until the question is resolved.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The 12 month average CPI will be measured according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official methodology as published in their monthly releases.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 96% chance (104 traders, as of Apr 8, 2026).