If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?

Question

Resolved in time for 2026 midterm elections.

Update 14 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.

Update 15 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if marijuana is removed from Schedule 1 in Biden’s current term.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (227 traders, as of Oct 30, 2026).