If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?

Question

Resolved in time for 2026 midterm elections.

Update 14 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.

Update 15 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if marijuana is removed from Schedule 1 in Biden’s current term.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (165 traders, as of Mar 24, 2026).