If Trump becomes president, will more people be imprisoned federally for drug offenses?

Question

As of 20 April, 2024, 64,121 people are in US federal prisons for drug offenses.

Resolves based on https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp

Market closes just before the 2026 midterms.

This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 28% chance (7 traders, as of Oct 14, 2026).