By 2030, will any Democratic administration succeed in jailing their opponents?

Question

Resolves YES if any political opponent of a future Democratic administration is arrested on charges brought at the president’s behest. This is in response to Kamala Harris saying during the last campaign that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy.

Criminal charges against any public figure perceived by a Democratic president or his/her supporters to have acted contrary to the spirit of American democracy as defined by Democrats qualify for this market.

Criminal charges that result in arrest resolve YES, even if the defendant is booked and released pending trial.

Charges that do not result in arrest (eg civil charges) do not resolve this market.

The results of trials based on charges that predate the election of Donald Trump to a second term do not resolve this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 39% chance (3 traders, as of Jul 22, 2025).