Will two decabillionaires have a publicized physical fight before 2030?

Question

Elon Musk recently said he was up to a cage fight against Zuckerberg.

[image]But one of them seems to have backed out of the idea since then.

Will two decabillionaires get into a publicized physical battle, before 2030?

Decabillionaires are people whose networth is above 10 billion dollars. Their networth will be considered at the time of the fight.

See also:

@/Bayesian/will-two-billionaires-have-a-public 
@/Bayesian/will-two-billionaires-have-a-public-fa89bfc89aa5 
@/Bayesian/will-two-billionaires-have-a-public-5fd2b59748ca

@/Bayesian/will-two-decabillionaires-have-a-pu (This one)

@/Bayesian/will-two-centabillionaires-have-a-p

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 21% chance (11 traders, as of May 14, 2026).