https://www.thedailybeast.com/hillary-clinton-says-useful-idiot-tucker-carlson-could-end-up-with-russian-tv-show

Since some tucker carlson X show clips have been posted on a russian tv channel, and Tucker and his team currently deny involvement, I've clarified the resolution criteria for this unfortunate edge case:

1) If it turns out Tucker actually consented to the show, or if he retroactively consents to it, before the end of 2024, the market resolves YES. Same for any other russian tucker shows he consents to, by the end of the year.

2) If Tucker continues to deny involvement or consentment to any and all russian tv shows until the end of the year, and there is no indication that he is lying (like a tv show continuing to display his shows in russian without legal liability), the market resolves NO.

3) If it seems in my or moderators' opinions clear that he is probably lying about a lack of consent/involvement, it may resolve to some probability relative to our subjective belief in his lies. For example, if it seems likely that he actually consents without publicly doing so, the market may resolve to 50%; If there is no indication of it, even if it is plausible, it will still resolve NO.