Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Question

"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

@Grok 5 (xAI) release date (this market)

@Gemini 3.2 (Google) release date@Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date@Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date@GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date@GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date@Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date@Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date@V4 (DeepSeek) release date@R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date@Llama 5 (Meta) release date@Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date@Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date@GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date@M3 (Minimax) release date@Gemma 4 (Google) release date@OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date@Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date@Veo 4 (Google) release date@New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date@'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before June 2026 and Before May 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (53 traders, as of Apr 4, 2026).