When will Russia capture Kostyantynivka?

Question

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

See https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by for the full rules.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/when-will-russia-capture-pokrovsk)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before July, followed by Before June and Before March are most likely. See the market for live updates (14 traders, as of May 14, 2026).