GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Question

Minor changes to the name, such as 'GPT 6.1', or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6, will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

@NU2IyqRq0u

@LhlNpLyA2h

@8AyI5Np5yl

@OchSUnInIq

@cgl2IP0yIC (this market)

@cstO2OAIhZ

@LU5RqqqEuA

@t5Eh629zRE

@2OzL6Q56y8

@IZO2UZgUNO

@2CqdhIO9cU

@6SLuEUSN2g

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before October 2026, followed by Before September 2026 and Before August 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (179 traders, as of Jul 21, 2026).