What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Question

This market matches Developer Productivity: METR Uplift Study from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.

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[image]Resolution criteria

Resolves to the speedup multiple (time_taken_by_developers_without_AI / time_taken_by_developers_with_AI) reported by the most recent METR uplift study published in 2026 using the same or clearly comparable methodology. If METR reports percent change in time taken instead (time_taken_by_developers_with_AI / time_taken_by_developers_without_AI - 1) as they did for their 2025 study, we will convert using: speedup = 1 / (1 + percent_change_in_time_taken).

If no METR uplift study is published in 2026, this question's outcome will be marked ambiguous. If multiple comparable METR uplift studies are published in 2026, the resolver may decide which one is most representative of the end of 2026 software development speedup, at their discretion (this would be the one published later in 2026, unless there was reason to believe it was less comparable to the 2025 study than an earlier one).

Eli Lifland is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions.

Buckets are left-inclusive: e.g., 1.2-1.4x includes 1.2x but not 1.4x.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2-2.5x, followed by 2.5-3x and 1.8-2x are most likely. See the market for live updates (49 traders, as of May 15, 2026).