Gemini 3.0 scores 1500+ on Chatbot Arena in 2025? (Without Style Control)

Question

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gemini 3 on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches an Arena Score of 1500+ (With "Style control" unchecked) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the overall Arena Score on the leaderboard, not any specific category score.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.