10 year moratorium on any regulation on AI through Budget reconciliation bill?

Question

[image]If the bill is passed with this 10 year moratorium on ai regulation still there, the market resolves YES. if this part of the bill is removed or the bill doesn't pass, resolves NO. idk the timeline by which we will know the bill won't pass, so may adjust the close date accordingly

Update 2025-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about a 'watered down' moratorium, the creator has clarified the resolution criteria:

The market will resolve YES if a provision creates a punishment for regulating AI that is so severe it acts as a de facto ban (i.e., no state would realistically pass such regulation).

The market will resolve NO if a provision merely discourages AI regulation.

Update 2025-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to questions about a 'watered down' moratorium, the creator has clarified the resolution criteria:

The market will resolve YES if a provision creates a punishment for regulating AI that is so severe it acts as a de facto ban.

The market will resolve NO if a provision merely discourages AI regulation (i.e., a 'watered down' version).

Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A provision will be considered sufficient for a YES resolution if it includes a strong enough discouragement on AI regulation that it effectively results in a 10-year moratorium.

Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided specific monetary examples to help define what constitutes a 'de facto ban' on AI regulation:

The market will resolve NO if the penalty for regulating AI is $500 million per state or less.

A penalty of $40 billion per state would require further investigation but is in the range of what could be considered a de facto ban and resolve YES.

Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the outcome is sufficiently ambiguous, the creator has stated they will likely resolve the market to N/A.

Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has unresolved and closed the market. They are currently working out the details for the final resolution.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jul 20, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.