Will the first presidential debate "matter"?

Question

Resolves YES if either candidate gets a 3 point boost between the debate day and two weeks afterwards. Will use RCP's 2-way "Spread" score for resolution purposes. Resolves N/A if no debate takes place. I have set the resolution date far away only as a safeguard against rescheduling.

Link to resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jul 12, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.