He will drop out before the Republican endorsement convention.

He will drop out after the Republican endorsement convention but before the primary.

He will stay in until the Republican primary but lose it.

He will win the Republican primary but drop out before the general election.

He will be nominated winning the Republican primary but lose the general election.

He will remain in the race through all stages and win the general election.

The 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with primary elections on August 11, 2026. Precinct caucuses are scheduled for February 3, 2026, and the Republican endorsement convention is expected in May, with endorsements occurring in March and early April. This market resolves based on the furthest stage Lindell's campaign reaches before ending:

Resolution will be determined by official campaign announcements, candidate filing records with the Minnesota Campaign Finance Board, and election results from the Minnesota Secretary of State.

Lindell officially entered the race for Minnesota governor on December 11, 2024, as a Trump supporter and MyPillow founder. He is likely to be a top contender for the Minnesota GOP nomination due to his prominence in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Close to a dozen Republican candidates have already entered the race, including House Speaker Lisa Demuth and 2022 nominee Scott Jensen. If Lindell secures the Republican nomination, he would face incumbent Governor Tim Walz, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee in 2024. No Republican has won statewide office in Minnesota since 2006.

Republicans aligned with the more moderate wing of the GOP have said having Lindell atop the ticket could hurt their chance to win the governor's office. The Republican endorsement convention in spring will determine party backing, though some candidates have indicated they will take the race to a primary if they don't receive the endorsement.