Someone asked me to put a number our chances of success at a recent EA meetup, and I figured this would be perfect for a prediction market.

Famously, Elon estimated:
> To be frank, in the early days, I thought there was >90% chance that both SpaceX & Tesla would be worth $0. The press & aerospace / automotive industry at the time (correctly) agreed with me.

Also don't know what base rates are -- Manifold raised a seed at $15m, so there's a 66x gain it needs to hit. If that means 1/66 seed stage startups make it to unicorn status, then base rates are 1-2%.

Jun 13, 6:24pm: Market resolves NO if by 2031 Manifold is still not worth $1B.