Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first?

Question

I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.

Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:

The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.

If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, None of the above happens by 2500, followed by Another pope uses the papal name Peter and A female pope is elected are most likely. See the market for live updates (14 traders, as of Aug 15, 2026).