If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Question

If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:

This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.

This market will resolve to NO otherwise.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-is-elected-will-there-be-1bw27ghde1)Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any cessation of fighting counts, regardless of how it comes about (including surrender scenarios). The market will resolve based on whether fighting stops, not the political circumstances that lead to it.

If the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense appears to be blatantly underreporting casualties, the creator may also consider other reliable sources to determine if fighting is actually ongoing.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (558 traders, as of Mar 31, 2026).