Negotiations on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire have been ongoing for weeks. The current proposal is a temporary ceasefire where some Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners are exchanged. If no agreement broadly resembling this plan is implemented by the end of 2024 or Netanyahu’s coalition collapses before a ceasefire for a different reason, this market will resolve to N/A. 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to YES if Netanyahu loses his majority in the Knesset due to the ceasefire agreement (according to statements from those leaving the coalition) and NO otherwise.