Will Javier Milei survive to the end of his first term as president?

Question

As it says, I mean literally survive - if he's removed from office but remains alive until the date this resolves YES. If he dies before his term begins, this resolves NO.

His term ends 10 December 2027 according to wikipedia. This market closes the day before that, with my intent being to resolve the day after.

I can't think of any other semi-ambiguous resolution possibilities, but if one comes up I'll outline what I think. I do not plan to bet on this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 92% chance (22 traders, as of Aug 2, 2026).