Can my friend tell GPT-4 from respected bloggers? (Lady tasting tea experiment)

Question

The rules, according to my friend: "You pick posts from a few respected blogs from before 2022 (no cherry-picking) and also generate GPT-4 blogs (cherry-picking allowed). Say 4 of each. I bet I can pick out which are which given a decent length sample."

Resolves YES if he can tell them apart correctly (at the 1.4% significance level), NO if the null hypothesis is not rejected.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on May 10, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.