If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Question

In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8
Ben Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term. Who is right?

I use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here. Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president. This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.

Resolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024

Resolves 'No' if there is no evidence for Trump attempting to run for a third term by the end of 2032.

Edit: If Trump was making a joking about running for 3rd term president that wouldn’t count. In case that it is difficult to determine if Trump is joking or not, I’ll consult with traders here.

Edit: If no clear statement or quote from Trump is available, I do not consider that sufficient evidence for the market to resolve YES.

[Edit May 6, 2025]:  For the record, I’m handing over the ownership of the market to @shankypanky, she has the final say on the market resolution and all clarifications on the market.

Pinning the voting page here on whether this market should have resolved Yes already.
https://manifold.markets/Balasar/should-manifold-market-resolve-as-y?play=true

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (372 traders, as of Jun 25, 2026).