Will the Marines betray/defect the World Government?

Question

Resolves Yes if there are significant defections from the Marine to fight against the world government.

Example of what would count as significant defection:

-Fleet Admiral/Sakazuki decided to go against the world government
-Two of the three Admirals decided to go against the world government
-Significant fraction of marines decided to go against order and fight against the world government

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 56% chance (24 traders, as of Oct 30, 2025).