'elect':4 'els':2 'got':3 'rnc':7 'someon':1

he quits for health reasons (other than death)

Biden can’t or isn’t running for president

He makes a series of huge PR blunders that ruin his electability

'blunder':8 'elect':12 'huge':6 'make':2 'pr':7 'ruin':10 'seri':4

A sudden incident or announcement (manifold odds drop >70% in one hour)

'70':9 'announc':5 'drop':8 'hour':12 'incid':3 'manifold':6 'odd':7 'one':11 'sudden':2

The courts deem that he is not eligible to run for President

'court':2 'deem':3 'elig':8 'presid':12 'run':10

The courts concede that he won in 2020 meaning that term limits prevent him from running again

'2020':8 'conced':3 'court':2 'limit':12 'mean':9 'prevent':13 'run':16 'term':11 'won':6

This market estimate the market consensus about what are the biggest reason/possibly scenario for Trump to not be the republican nominee, during the month of Feb 2024.

Resolves to the one month average percent from February 1st to Feb 29th. My judgment will be based on the graph, so it might be off by a few percent. If others have provided a precise average in the comments, I will rely on that precise average instead.