Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Question

This question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question Date first AGI is publicly known. was developed by a research group working for an international project.

“International project” means a formally organized, multinational endeavor involving two or more countries (via public funding, formal agreements, or institutional structures spanning multiple nations), similar in spirit to collaborations like the Human Genome Project or CERN. Indicators of “international project” status include: official involvement of multiple governments or governmental agencies, shared funding from multiple countries, or internationally chartered organizations.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 14% chance (7 traders, as of Jan 22, 2026).