Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?

Question

It's a problem a child could understand. Still, there have been countless mathematicians "wasting their careers" attempting to solve what is beyond our grasp -- and it fundamentally comes down to understanding how the multiplicative structure of the integers interacts with the additive. This will be resolved if a proof or disproof is in a journal of high esteem by the time the clock ticks by.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 26% chance (44 traders, as of Oct 13, 2026).