How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022)

Question

This market will be resolved when a recursively self-improving AI outpowers the combined might of human civilization. At least, I'll try my best to close it.

Dec 7, 6:04pm: How many years until the singularity? → How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022)

Manifold Markets · Answer

The current median estimate is 0.1527840990232241 according to Manifold Markets prediction market (as of Mar 3, 2026).