34% chance. My Manifold survey will include some questions about demographics, including one about the respondents' gender (the same question as the one on Pat's survey) and one about their race. Will at least 80 percent of respondents who answer both questions say that they are white males? Note that the race question will use checkboxes (select all that apply), so some people may select white and another race - they will still be counted towards this maket.

Note: This requires 80% to say that they are white AND male, not just 80% white and 80% male.

The close date of this question may change depending on when I decide to run the survey. See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.

Is Manifold just a bunch of white guys?

When that market is resolved, I will attempt to ask the creator whether >=50% of the respondents were white males (or investigate the results myself if they're published). I will resolve this market based on that metric, and N/A if for whatever reason I can't get a good answer.