Who will do an apparent Nazi salute during Trump's second term? (add answers)

Question

Only salutes on or after January 21st 2025 count.  I will resolve according to my judgment, based on credible video or photo/eyewitness evidence. Think of a "clear and convincing" but not necessarily "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of evidence. For reference, Elon Musk's Nazi salute on January 20th would have counted and not been close.

Salutes before inauguration day 2029 will count even if Donald Trump is no longer acting as president.

Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - The scope is global; salutes from any country are considered. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on Resolution Criteria:

Affirmative intent not required: Confirmation of affirmative intent to praise Hitler is not necessary.

Trolling counts: Performing the gesture as an effort to troll will count.

Repeated gestures at rallies: Performing the gesture repeatedly at political rallies will count despite denials.

Media controversy with evidence: If there is widespread controversy in the media about whether somebody was doing a Nazi salute along with video or other substantial evidence, it will count.

Non-genuine gestures do not count: Raising the right arm at a medical exam or hailing a taxi does not count.

Update 2025-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any apparent Nazi salute counts regardless of intent:

A salute performed to mock or oppose other Nazi saluters will count.

This clarification applies even if the gesture is made for trolling purposes or as a form of satire.

Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Further details on evaluating gestures and media controversy:

Physical appearance of the gesture:

Less likely to count as an apparent Nazi salute: Gestures that are slower, smoother, with a bent elbow, and a relaxed/spread hand (e.g., more consistent with a conventional wave).

More likely to count: Gestures that are sudden, rigid, emphatic, with a straight arm and a tensed hand (characteristics similar to the Elon Musk reference example or past YES resolutions in this market).

Media controversy criterion: The controversy must be specifically about whether the gesture itself was a Nazi salute. Controversy primarily about other related topics (e.g., media reactions, accusations of hypocrisy, or lack of coverage for a gesture) does not meet this criterion.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Donald Trump, followed by Elon Musk (again) and Marjorie Taylor Greene are most likely. See the market for live updates (194 traders, as of Jun 21, 2026).