Who will run for the 2028 Republican nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]

Question

Resolution Criteria

For each candidate listed, the market will resolve YES if they:

Officially announce their candidacy for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, OR

File paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president as a Republican in 2028, OR

Takes part in an official Republican presidential debate, OR

Appear on any state's Republican presidential primary ballot in 2028

The market will resolve NO for candidates who:

Explicitly rule out running in the 2028 election during 2028

Do not take any of the above actions

Run as an independent or for another party's nomination

The resolution will be after Super Tuesday.

On Adding Answers:

I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market

If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

I will reserve judgment on whether somebody's eligible for the presidency until they either choose not to run on Super Tuesday or a consensus of state courts of last resort (or the Supreme Court, should it get involved) finds that they are ineligible for the presidency.

Should someone hold themselves out as a candidate for president but involves a scheme to allow the person who holds himself out as a candidate to be chosen as vice president as part of a scheme to serve more than two terms as President[1], that person will count as running for the nomination as long as they hold themselves out as the candidate to serve as president.

[1] Bruce G. Peabody and Scott E. Gant, “The Twice and Future President: Constitutional Interstices and the Twenty-Second Amendment,” Minnesota Law Review 83, no. 3 (1998–1999): 565–636, https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/mnlr83&i=577; “How to Serve Three Terms as President (LegalEagle’s Real Law Review),” March 13, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWihXElw_zg

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Ted Cruz, followed by Ron Desantis and Glenn Youngkin are most likely. See the market for live updates (57 traders, as of Oct 9, 2026).