Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

Question

Read Below:

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

Who listed in Appendix B of the book "Government Gangsters: The Deep State, the Truth, and the Battle for Our Democracy" by proposed FBI Director Kash Patel will be investigated within the first two years of the Trump administration?

This will resolve to "Yes" if the justice department, court fillings, the Trump administration, the named individual, or three credible news outlets confirm that the individual is the target or subject of a criminal investigation by the federal government of the United States. For the purposes of this market, Kash Patel is referenced only as the author of the list. His future involvement or lack thereof with the FBI, the federal government, or any other government in any way is irrelevant.

For purposes of these rules, a “criminal investigation” means a formal inquiry undertaken under the law enforcement or prosecutorial authority of the federal government of the United States, conducted for the purpose of determining whether an individual has committed a violation of federal criminal law or an inquiry that will, inherently, result in a determination of whether an individual has violated federal criminal laws. Inquiries that can not result in criminal prosecution will not be counted for this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI, followed by Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein and Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden are most likely. See the market for live updates (14 traders, as of Mar 29, 2026).