More than one cabinet-level nominee rejected by the Senate

More than one cabinet-level nominee withdrawn after being formally nominated

One or more cabinet member appointed by virtue of a recess appointment

Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water

Trump pardons at least one January 6 convict

Anthony Fauci is the target of a criminal investigation by the federal government

More than two bills are passed by Congress and signed by Trump

The US ceases all military aid to Ukraine

The US lifts all sanctions against Russia

JD Vance has to break a tie on a vote regarding a presidential appointment

Trump calls for the elimination of the filibuster

Trump exercises his power under Article II, Section 3, Clause 3 to adjourn Congress

Executive order ejecting transgender people serving in the military

National ban on transgender youth treatment

A federal death row inmate is executed by the federal government

Any member of the January 6th committee is investigated

Any member of the January 6th committee is prosecuted

Trump announces U.S. withdrawal from World Health Organization

Any EO or policy primarily affecting the transgender population

He discloses that aliens are real and have been kept secret for decades.

In-person meeting between Trump and Putin

Penn State wins College Football Playoff championship

o3 released to any person in the United States willing to pay for it

Trump praises someone whose Wikipedia page (at the time) describes them as a White supremacist, white nationalist, Nazi (or Nazi sympathizer), or Neo-nazi

Trump is no longer President (including through the invocation of section three or four of the 25th amendment)

Eliminates mandates for vaccines (distinct from banning vaccines).

Trump Implies, jokes or says he will run again or that there won’t be the next presidential election 

2 or more reporters for NYT, CNN, MSNBC, WaPo, NPR, or ABC have their White House press passes revoked

Trump orders flags to be flown at full staff for any period of time before they were set to be raised by Joe Biden's presidential proclamation (30 days after Carter's death)

Trump does a hand gesture similar enough to a nazi salute for it to be reported as one by a major news outlet

Trump takes action to abolish federal income tax

any duly issued US treasury cheque does not clear

Dow gaps down -2000 points from on daily charts from previous close to next close

NVDA stock trades below $100 during normal, after hours, or premarket trading

a 19-yo Canadian calling himself "Big Balls" becomes one of the only people with exclusive access to the United States Treasury Department

Trump elevates a position to cabinet-level

Trump administration ignores a court order

N/A – not keeping with the spirit of the market

GPT-5 (standard intelligence) available to every person in the United States at no charge

GPT-5 (maximum intelligence) available to every person in the United States willing to pay for it

disqualified – no clear resolution criteria

A plurality of respondents agrees that weak AGI has been achieved in one of the monthly Manifold polls that are posted on the 23rd of each month

Any xAI chatbot is #1 overall on LMSYS leaderboard on day 100

Negative initial uncorrected monthly jobs report

Trump makes a second statement designed to manipulate the price of a cryptocurrency, as judged by Aaron Simansky

For a second time, >= 31% of Manifold respondents who express an opinion believe that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth in one of the monthly polls

GPT-4.5 available for free to any person in the United States

What will happen before May 1, 2025? The rules for specific markets are in the comments.

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Should there be a dispute, the rules in the comments or those that have been otherwise provided will control over the answer to the question itself.

 While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules.

 Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. 

In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.  

I will issue a full analysis of my reasoning for resolving a market within 24 hours after I resolve it. If you are dissatisfied with a resolution, please wait for the full analysis, and then leave a comment or message me before leaving a bad review of my resolution.

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I will message the creator of a market that I do not believe conforms with rule number two on adding answers (that all answers must have clear criteria for resolving) and they will have 24 hours to provide a clear criteria for resolving (I will help create criteria) or else their submission will be N/A'ed. If there is a market that is possibly subject to N/A I will make that clear once I give the 24 hour notice to the creator of the market.

If the criteria for an answer are satisfied before Donald Trump takes office that answer will not resolve unless it is impossible for that answer to resolve yes or no after Trump takes office in which case that answer will resolve N/A.

Please note: that given the somewhat ambiguous of some markets, I will not trade on this market.

Clarification on LMSYS Leaderboard Measurement: