A Supreme Court Justice announces their retirement

The United States is in charge of at least part of Greenland

Any section of the 25th Amendment is invoked

The provisions of the SAVE Act are passed into law

The provisions of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is passed into law

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor is removed from the line of succession to the British Throne

A jury returns a verdict of guilty with respect to at least one crime charged against Luigi Mangione

Republicans lose a majority in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is out as Speaker of the House

Polymarket shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Kalshi shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Elizabeth MacDonough is no longer Senate Parliamentarian

The first serious candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election enters the race

Manifold shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Manifold shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

The UK Labour Party selects its next leader by ballot of its members

Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

Manifold shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

The Kalshi "American Power Index" favors Democrats

Construction of Trump's triumphal arch begins

Kalshi and polymarket shows Republicans have 90% or high chance of winning the house in 2026 midterms

All prediction markets and polls shows Republicans have 90% or high chance of winning the house in 2026 midterms

Republicans lead in the early voting and mail in voting

What will happen before election day (ET) for the midterms in 2026? The rules for specific markets are in the comments.

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Should there be a dispute, the rules in the comments or those that have been otherwise provided will control over the answer to the question itself.

 While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end-all be-all, and all traders should look at the rules.

 Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. 

In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

I will issue a full analysis of my reasoning for resolving a market within 24 hours after I resolve it. If you are dissatisfied with a resolution, please wait for the full analysis, and then leave a comment or message me before leaving a bad review of my resolution.

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I will message the creator of a market that I do not believe conforms with rule number two on adding answers (that all answers must have clear criteria for resolving) and they will have 24 hours to provide a clear criteria for resolving (I will help create criteria) or else their submission will be N/A'ed. If there is a market that is possibly subject to N/A I will make that clear once I give the 24 hour notice to the creator of the market.

Every time a user adds Ṁ500 or more, I will match that additional liquidity unless I lack the funds to reasonably do so.