Will any major science fiction short story markets lift their categorical ban on writing with LLMs by 2030?

Question

For the purposes of this market, I'll be tracking only five major markets for SF short fiction. Same criteria as https://manifold.markets/ASomewhatRudeParakeet/will-any-major-science-fiction-shor, just a longer time frame.

Analog Science Fiction & Fact, Asimov's Science Fiction, and Clarkesworld:

We will not consider any submissions written, developed, or assisted by these tools. Attempting to submit these works may result in being banned from submitting works in the future.

Lightspeed:

Until the ethical questions surrounding the use of AI tools such as ChatGPT for commercial purposes are resolved, we will not accept submissions that are written with—or entirely by—AI.

Uncanny Magazine:

Please note that Uncanny Magazine does not accept any submissions written with artificial intelligence or similar technologies. These submissions will be rejected, and authors will no longer be able to submit to Uncanny Magazine if they didn’t disclose that they used artificial intelligence or similar technologies for creating their submissions.

Clarifications that it's okay to get ideas from AI or an LLM don't count, nor do explicitly allowing banal things that might technically use neural networks like spellcheckers. To resolve YES, one of these markets has to allow for LLMs to be involved in some part of actually writing a story.

Since this is a longer time frame and we don't know what the current generation of LLMs will evolve into (they're already technically not just language models), this will probably require more judgement to resolve. But the intent of this market is that these magazines make explicit exceptions for generative AI creating all or some of a story. If more than one of these markets goes out of business, I'll replace them with other major genre short fiction markets as long as the set of them still feels representative.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (3 traders, as of May 2, 2026).