Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in July 2026?

Question

Resolves based on the "Russian Net Monthly Advance" report of Black Bird group (positive values resolve NO, negative resolve YES)  - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup). Here is their assessment as of May 2026 (from https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2062585511340916856):

[image]For context some analysts like Mike Kofman (e.g. in https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-long-game-with-jake-sullivan-and-jon-finer/id1850526014?i=1000771130026) believe that Ukraine has gained initiative on the battlefield and is likely to keep it for the next few months.

If the group does not publish a new assessment following the same methodology by September 1st, this resolves NA.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (21 traders, as of Jul 25, 2026).