Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?

Question

Andes virus is a member of the hantavirus family responsible for the MV Hondius cruise ship outbreak.

The only vaccine against hantaviruses in use is Hantavax which targets Hantaan river virus and Seoul virus, both "old world" hantaviruses, causing different symptoms than "new world" hantaviruses like the Andes virus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hantavirus_vaccine)

Moderna has been working on mRNA hantavirus vaccine, though this seems to target old world hantaviruses as well:

https://brusselssignal.eu/2026/05/korea-university-and-moderna-have-been-working-on-mrna-hantavirus-vaccine-since-2023/

Resolves YES if any officially sanctioned vaccine trial in humans occurs before close date, where:

the vaccine has preclinical data suggesting possible efficacy against Andes virus

the trial has testing efficacy against Andes virus among its goals

As @Cactus noted, there was a vaccine tested earlier (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37380156/). This market will only consider trials that happen after market creation (specifically, that the vaccine is administered to humans after market creation, if the trial started or was designed earlier, it still counts).

The results of the trial are not relevant for resolution.

I will not bet on this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (69 traders, as of Oct 20, 2026).