Strait of Hormuz escorts prop bets (before May 7th)

Question

Trump promised that US will start escorting ships out of the Persian Gulf through the straight of Hormuz today in "Project Freedom". Iran responded they will attack any US ships that enter.

"large ship" refers to oil tankers, CNG carriers, container ships or similar (intention is to avoid situations where e.g. a small fishing boat passing through is claimed as successful escort).

For all questions, one case is sufficient to resolve YES.

Most of the categories are kind of fuzzy (escort, attempt), I think it is most likely to be quite clear, but when difficult, I'll take time for a consensus of media/analysts to form and possibly discuss here.

Note that an attack on a US ship was already claimed by Iran and damage denied by US https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260504-live-us-to-escort-ships-through-strait-of-hormuz-as-iran-warns-of-ceasefire-breach-trump

I will not bet on this market.

UPDATES:

If important, I will use Iran local time for cutoff to resolve (UTC +3:30).

Only manned surface ships count for all of the questions

Combat damage only counts if it happens in the general area around Persian Gulf and the strait OR in clear connection to an escort mission

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, US Navy manned vessel crosses the strait, followed by US navy ship attacked by Iran and Escort of a large ship is attempted are most likely. See the market for live updates (37 traders, as of May 6, 2026).