How many companies will claim to own an AGI by 2040 given OpenAI claims to own an AGI by 2030?

Question

"AGI" as in general artificial intelligence.

"own an AGI" as in the company has access to the AGI's weights or their equivalent.

Resolves N/A if OpenAI does not claim to have an AGI by 2030.

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Seeing I messed up the ranges in the choices:

1-5 range is inclusive. Includes both 1 and 5.

6-30 range includes numbers 6 to 29 only. Does not include 30.

30-60 range includes numbers 30 to 59 only. Does not include 60.

60-100 range includes numbers 60 to 99. Does not include 100.

100+ includes numbers 100 to ∞

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 6-30, followed by 100+ and 30-60 are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of Sep 4, 2026).