What will happen between Anthropic and the Pentagon?

Question

All markets resolve by July 1st 2026, unless noted otherwise.

Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the option "A non-Anthropic LLM is deployed and accessible to end users on classified Pentagon networks" to resolve YES:

The system must be approved for classified information (not just controlled unclassified information)

The system must actually be available to use for classified information

Update 2026-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For "The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes": the market will resolve based on whether ALL requested changes (specifically mass surveillance and autonomous weapons clauses removed) are made to Anthropic's usage terms. Changes to the model/deployment itself are not required for resolution.

Update 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the option "Anthropic is designated as a supply chain risk": This will resolve YES when it is reported that the legal paperwork for the supply chain risk designation is filed, regardless of whether Anthropic challenges it or gets it overturned later. A tweet or public statement alone is not sufficient for resolution.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, A non-Anthropic LLM is deployed and accessible to end users on classified Pentagon networks, followed by Anthropic agrees to "all lawful use" of their models (or it is otherwise made clear that no use restrictions on the models will be in effect) and Defense Production Act used to compel Anthropic are most likely. See the market for live updates (68 traders, as of May 2, 2026).