Anthropic agrees to "all lawful use" of their models (or it is otherwise made clear that no use restrictions on the models will be in effect)

Anthropic is designated as a supply chain risk

Anthropic's Pentagon contract is canceled

More than 10 Anthropic employees publicly state that they're leaving due to (or partially due to) the result of this conflict

A non-Anthropic LLM is deployed and accessible to end users on classified Pentagon networks

Defense Production Act used to compel Anthropic

The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes

Donald Trump publicly comments on the conflict (by March 15)

All markets resolve by July 1st 2026, unless noted otherwise.