Almost Certainly Free Mana: All Options Resolves to YES Except Last Traded Option (you can add answers)

Question

Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market where anyone can add answers. Each option will resolve independently at the market's close based on the following rules:

YES: Every answer option that is not the last traded option will resolve to YES.

NO: The single answer option that has the most recent trade (buy or sell) timestamp in the transaction history at the time of market close will resolve to NO.

The creator will determine the "last traded option" using the public transaction ledger/history on Manifold for this market.

Any option that has never been traded (has zero transactions) will resolve to YES.

Background

This market functions as a financial coordination game. Since all options except the final traded one resolve to YES, traders are incentivized to buy YES on various options to secure a payout. However, the last person to execute a trade on any option before the market closes will cause that specific option to resolve to NO, resulting in a loss for those holding YES shares in that option. Because the "add answers" mode is set to ANYONE, participants can introduce new options to dynamically shift trading activity.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Option 1, followed by Option 6 and Option 2 are most likely. See the market for live updates (16 traders, as of Jun 30, 2026).