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π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ2,170 | |
| 2 | αΉ972 | |
| 3 | αΉ827 | |
| 4 | αΉ625 | |
| 5 | αΉ528 |
Check out the companion question for the Kentucky Oaks
https://manifold.markets/ovals/what-color-will-the-2024-kentucky-o
Draw my rhymes like a bow
Shoot 'em out like an arrow
Swooping' on suckers like an eagle not a sparrow
I'm walkin' a wide path
I never ever walk it narrow
I randomly stumbled on this market and looking at the graph, I feel like something is going very wrong here.
Either people don't know how to use manifold and making their bets way too confidently, which means they will lose too much money on average. You should be careful to not push an option too far up or down unless you are very confident, because bets at the extremes are increasingly unprofitable.
Or maybe there is some unspoken disagreement which colors the horses are. Is there a list that says which horse is which color?? otherwise it seems super subjective whether a horse will e.g. count as white or gray. I'm not a horse guy, but there's probably some horses which are right in the middle between chestnut and bay color. That's just asking for trouble with the eventual resolution of this market.
@Agh I think this is mostly a case of @notrickspringfield throwing away his mana into bad bets in the last few days
The last bay to win the Kentucky Derby β Authentic, 2020
The last chestnut to win the Kentucky Derby β Rich Strike, 2022
The last dark bay/brown to win the Kentucky Derby β Always Dreaming, 2017
The last gray/roan to win the Kentucky Derby β Giacomo, 2005
The last black to win the Kentucky Derby β Flying Ebony 1925
White Thoroughbreds are rare, and not a single one has won the Kentucky Derby.
That could change in 2024 if Amante Bianco enters the starting gate at Churchill Downs.
@agh @TheBayesian
This graph could mirror my meth consumption tbh
Sometimes the crystal really is a crystal ball lol
