OpenAI - Event Monday

Will OpenAI *announce* a search competitor to Google / Perplexity by May 17, 2024?7% chance

Will OpenAI *release* a search competitor to Google / Perplexity by May 17, 2024?8% chance

Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search before 2025?48% chance

#Google

OpenAI release GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 by what month?

15%

Before June

40%

Before July

49%

Before August

60%

Before September

Mysterious “gpt2-chatbot” AI model appears suddenly, confuses experts

Mystery LLM highlights transparency issues in AI testing.

What is “gpt2-chatbot”?

11%

gpt-4.5 or 5 or whatever OpenAI's next generation model is called https://x.com/phill__1/status/1784964135920235000

new version of gpt-2 from 2019 https://x.com/albfresco/status/1784964830887104999

new open-source model https://x.com/AndrewCurran_/status/1784975542028050739

80%

other (e.g. just an updated version of GPT-4)

What is true about gpt2-chatbot?

87%

Made by OpenAI

87%

It will get matched/surpassed by a LLM from another company/organization by EOY 2024

79%

We will learn who created it by June 1, 2024

79%

Its full form has modalities other than text and vision input. (e.g., audio input, vision output, etc.)

[SOFT CRITERIA, READ DESC] Will all "gpt2-chatbot" models in LMSYS prove to be new, improved models from OpenAI?89% chance

[HARD CRITERIA, READ DESC] Will all "gpt2-chatbot" models in LMSYS prove to be new, improved models from OpenAI?59% chance

#ChatGPT

AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market]

Is gpt2-chatbot based on the GPT-2 architecture?10% chance

#ChatGPT

#GPT-4 speculation

#GPT-5 Speculation

49%

Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.

22%

Produce a >10 minute video (“live-action”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful.

19%

Produce a >10 minute video (“animated”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful

33%

Generate a 30 second realistic looking pornographic video.

See 18 more answers

#Generative AI

#Artificial Intelligence

#Technical AI Timelines

Will OpenAI Sora release to the public before the next GPT version, 4.5 / 5?21% chance

#GPT-5 Speculation

#GPT-4 speculation

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,031

#AGI

OpenAI is expected to release a 'materially better' GPT-5 for its chatbot mid-year, sources say

Business Insider

The model that underlies the popular ChatGPT generative AI tool is said to be soon getting an upgrade.

Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this summer (2024) as BusinessInsider claims?35% chance

#GPT-5

#GPT-4 speculation

What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)?

93%

achieve the highest ELO rating on LMSYS (ChatBot Arena)

90%

support more agentic, time-consuming tasks with minimal input

81%

released in 2024

81%

context window >= 500k tokens

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 50% for one month?

39%

2024 or 2025

18%

2026 or 2027

18%

2028 or 2029

25%

Not before 2030

Microsoft and OpenAI plan to build a $100 billion supercomputer to power artificial intelligence: report

Microsoft and OpenAI are planning an unprecedented supercomputer that would use millions of specialized server chips, The Information reported.

In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?78% chance