UK '24

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Will Labour win a Majority in the next election?YES

POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland

All polls, trends and election news for the the United Kingdom, Scotland and London — Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Brexit Party, SNP, Greens, Scottish independence referendum and Scotland election polls.

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Will a UK General Election be held during Q2 2024?NO

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Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 200 seats at the next UK general election?NO

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Will the Liberal Democrats be the third-largest party at the next UK general election (third-largest number of seats)?YES

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Which of the following promises will be in the Labour party Manifesto?

Resolved

YES

Not raise VAT

Resolved

YES

Maintain the triple lock

Resolved

YES

Reduce NHS waiting lists

Resolved

YES

New towns

See 18 more answers

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Which of the following promises will be in the conservative party Manifesto?

Resolved

YES

Not raise VAT

Resolved

YES

Maintain the triple lock

Resolved

YES

Stop the boats

Resolved

YES

Introduce national service

See 3 more answers

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Will Dominic Cummings launch a new "startup" party before the next UK General Election?NO

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Will Rishi Sunak face a formal confidence vote from the Conservative Party before the end of March 2024?NO

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The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 202614% chance

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2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales?

34%

Labour Majority, >200k houses built per year

61%

Labour Majority, <=200k houses built per year

Not Labour Majority, >200k houses built per year

Not Labour Majority, <=200k houses built per year

Basic

2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will inflation on average be between 1.5% and 2.5%

42%

Labour Majority, inflation average inside range

55%

Labour Majority, inflation average outside range

1.7%

Not Labour Majority, inflation average inside range

1.6%

Not Labour Majority, inflation average outside range

Basic

Which of the following promises will be in the Liberal Democrat party Manifesto?

Resolved

YES

Maintain the triple lock

Resolved

N/A

Other

Resolved

Not raise VAT

Resolved

Reduce class sizes

Basic

2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will illegal migration be above 20k per year on average in the UK?

74%

Labour Majority, net migration 20k

19%

Labour Majority, net migration =<20k

Not Labour Majority, net migration >20k

Not Labour Majority, net migration =<20k

Basic

2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will net migration be above 400k per year on average in the UK?

70%

Labour Majority, net migration >400k

28%

Labour Majority, net migration =<400k

Not Labour Majority, net migration >400k

Not Labour Majority, net migration =<400k

Basic

2x2: Will Labour get majority, will fossil fuels (without imports) compose >33% of UK energy gen next Parliament?

32%

Labour Majority, fossil fuels >22%

36%

Labour Majority, fossil fuels <=22%

16%

Not Labour Majority, fossil fuels >22%

16%

Not Labour Majority, fossil fuels <=22%

Basic

2x2: Will Labour get majority, Will there be more than 80k robberies, on average?

40%

Labour Majority, >80k robberies

36%

Labour Majority, <= 80k robberies

12%

Not Labour Majority, >80k robberies

12%

Not Labour Majority, <= 80k robberies

Basic

2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will UK aid be at or above the 0.6% of GNI by the end of the Parliament?

44%

Labour Majority, aid >= 0.6% GNI

42%

Labour Majority, aid < 0.6% GNI

Not Labour Majority, aid >= 0.6% GNI

Not Labour Majority, aid < 0.6% GNI

Basic

2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will fast-growng broiler chickens still be legal by the end of the parlaiment?

45%

Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens legal

35%

Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens illegal

10%

Not Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens legal

10%

Not Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens illegal