Why is this so low? They're the two nominees and three debates is absolute standard. I can see why it would be significantly below the 90% you would have gotten for, like, Obama and Romney, but 26% seems very low?

@LukasTilmann They did 2 debates in 2020. Now they are 4 years older and have not attended a single debate yet, what's the reason for going for 3? If one of the candidates does really bad in a debate he can easily justify not doing another one with almost any plausable reason.

@RuiRodrigues They did two debates because Trump caught COVID and cancelled the last debate, which probably won't happen again.

As I said it's more likely that they don't do three debates than in any other campaign, but I really don't understand why it would be overwhelmingly likely. There are many reasons to do the normal amount of debates - it's standard, one could win by doing well in them (both candidates are unlikely to see the other as a masterful debater), shying away from it might be seen as weakness...

I can definitely see why the probability would be 90% but not exactly why it would be this low.

How would you resolve if one them isn't a candidate?

@GCS If Joe Biden and Donald Trump don't debate each other three times as a consequence of one or both of them not being a candidate in the election, then the question resolves NO at the end of election day.