For the record, my object-level prediction on this is ~32%, though it varies ~8-72% depending on the exact criteria used. E.g., Will a short story that is claimed to have been written by an AI win a reputable award? Sure, but a human will probably have been very involved in the editing of the AI output, the way we now in 2023 see lots of claims of AI-generated videos even though the AI's role is just writing the script or producing short video clips (usually just a quick pan/zoom with simple motion of the subject).

@Ace What do you think of the above?