Feel free to submit the names of any living public figures you think people would be interested in knowing the odds of survival for. Any duplicates or non-public-figures will be N/A-ed. If someone on this list has died, I will resolve their name to YES. At the end of 2024, all remaining names will resolve to NO.
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@jacksonpolack I had to save room after the answer cap changed, so I N/Aed a bunch but said I'd re-resolve. Have now done so.
@NicoDelon scratch that - spoke too soon. you were the newsbreak (wikipedia just updated this moment 🙃 )
@jacksonpolack I'm gonna wait just a bit to make sure this isn't one of the Juice's classic tricks
@CertaintyOfVictory just the comments on the other market I made here.
That WaPo article is from February though, so not actually anything new. But I wouldn't trust these kind of markets to be very efficient to begin with.
@PlasmaBallin I've finally freed up enough space to add OJ! Shouldn't need any more N/As, and if people strongly object to any of the ones I just did I suppose I can unresolve when they happen or don't. Most of these had ike 4 people and 3 bots betting though, so I think nothing of value was lost.
Anyways, if people have suggestions for people to add lemme know.
@CertaintyOfVictory Alright well I'll re-resolve any of the ones I N/A-ed today at the end of the year I guess. I can just only have 100 open for trading and those ones weren't getting many traders.
@Joshua Catherine Princess of Wales please and I dibs a BUY limit order at 5%.
@shankypanky In my notifications were some N/As for people I caught very quickly after they were added and considered to be highly unlikely to die in 2025 so I bet them way down probably making it very uninteresting for anyone else to bet on them. Nevertheless that's profit.
@CertaintyOfVictory ah yeah it's not my market so it's not really for me to answer but I think adding pretty obvious options for a year-long market with very limited slots is kind of out of the spirit of the game. I understand your profit mindset of course! really anyone can go at any time but I think with only 100 spaces there has to be some curation.
@CertaintyOfVictory Ah yeah , I'll send ya some mana for the trouble and I can un-N/A those at the end of the year or whenever they die
@shankypanky I can understand @Joshuas reasoning of course. It's just that they were there and I don't object if there's such a good opportunity.