Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
Plus
103
Ṁ31k2026
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)
PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES
Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
I can imagine it in the image generation space, since open models like Stable Diffusion have a level of customization that proprietary ones lack, and in this space it matters a lot. Even as Stability AI fumbles, there is a large amount of open-source efforts in this space picking up the slack.
I have a hard time seeing this happen to LLMs due to both the prohibitive cost of training them and the proprietary LLMs being "good enough" for consumer use cases.
Related questions
Related questions
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
34% chance
Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)
35% chance
By the end of Q1 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
24% chance
Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)
17% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
44% chance
Where will the next major breakthrough in AI originate from before 2025?
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
52% chance
By the end of Q2 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
61% chance