Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
➕
Plus
103
Ṁ31k
2026
33%
chance

In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)

PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES

Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 NO

I can imagine it in the image generation space, since open models like Stable Diffusion have a level of customization that proprietary ones lack, and in this space it matters a lot. Even as Stability AI fumbles, there is a large amount of open-source efforts in this space picking up the slack.

I have a hard time seeing this happen to LLMs due to both the prohibitive cost of training them and the proprietary LLMs being "good enough" for consumer use cases.

predicts YES

Laugh emoji

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules