What won't happen by EoY 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]

Plus

Ṁ6274

2026

99%

GPT-5 released

84%

Ukraine joins Nato

67%

Evergrande liquidation completed

54%

Officially supported Netflix app releases for the Apple vision pro

53%

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher

50%

A previously unrecognized country receives its first recognition by a UN member state.

45%

Donald Trump becomes US president again

45%

Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married

Inspired by @strutheo's monthly/yearly megamarkets, but with a slight twist; answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet.

Expect my policy around resolutions and N/A's to be roughly in line with strutheo's, though I might be a bit more lenient wrt joke answers. We'll see, this market will be around for a while.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Grab Bag

Get

1,000

and

3.00

7 Comments

51 Holders

184 Trades

Sort by:

Could you capitalize WON’T in the title? I almost bet wrong

bought Ṁ2,110 Bitcoin hits $65k NO

@Arcmage7000 bitcoin is at $65k

A previously unrecognized country receives its first recognition by a UN member state.

Somaliland?

sold Ṁ5 Ukraine joins Nato NO

I bet NO because I thought there is no way Ukraine is joining NATO, then I saw the questions was actually inverse, so I bet YES. then I sold my shares in NO and made an instant 3 profit. go figure.

answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet

whyy

@BrunoParga I dunno, thought it might be interesting to do an inverse market, see if framing it differently affects how people bet. I'm hoping it won't lead to too much confusion, perhaps I should have just done a more typical 'what will happen by' market

@Arcmage7000 it is massively confusing.

Related questions

Related questions