Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token which can be easily exchanged from most major cryptocurrencies on at least one large exchange without an intermediate fiat step. If a company has announced this, they do not need to have implemented the payment system by the resolution date for the question to resolve positive, as long as they are still widely expected to do so. This question is about the state of the world on 1/1/25; if a company announces this but then backtracks before then, it will not qualify.
This is question is a variant of a question from the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest.
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@siraben Are there any specific cases you are thinking about that I can add clarification to?
what you quoted was intended to rule out, say, a one off opportunity to purchase like ticket for Tesla events with crypto.
If Tesla accepts crypto payment for buying their cars, or Netflix accept crypto payment for paying for subscriptions, or Apple accept crypto payment in App Store or Apple physical products, any of these will make the market resolve yes
@AmmonLam Maybe it would help to clarify examples of major services. I think Tesla is the only possibly ambiguous one here and obviously a merch purchase isn’t going to qualify
@siraben yes, merch purchase isn't going to qualify. I'll make it very specific for tesla, only sales for automobile, battery or solar panel will count for Tesla
@AmmonLam is it possible that the description should say 1/1/25 not 24, since it resolves based on what is true at the end of the year?
@houstonEuler could you share a screenshot of an option to pay directly with Doge when purchasing one of Tesla's major services, for example, a Tesla Model S or Tesla Solar Panels?
@vitamind no. a few months back Elon was in Germany and eluded to it (not an official announcement at all afaict). Doge was just added, here's a sample of the headlines related:
@shankypanky so based on CryptoPotato, Bitcoinist and ZyCrypto, you're prepared to say that it was just added, yes?
@houstonEuler I bought it up a little then backed out because I skimmed over the "major service" part at first 😅 but there's still a chance, more than half a calendar year to add more options.
@vitamind I don't really understand what you're asking me?
it's not accepted for a major service and the market won't resolve until the end of the year so I'm only prepared to just send you the screenshots of the headlines that announced Doge was just added as a payment method. there are plenty of other news outlets that I'm sure you could find with a search if you don't like these?
@shankypanky I'm asking why you take these news articles at face value to attempt to prove that you don't believe Doge has been a payment option on the Tesla site for non-major service (e.g., merchandise) for "months, maybe even longer".
@vitamind you're welcome to provide other evidence that it's been available for quite some time?
but tbc it's not even my market, I don't have any say in how it resolves, and it's not going to resolve for another 8 months (even if you could buy your own entire Tesla factory today or several months ago with btc) so it's a bit moot regardless. apologies if my response triggered some sort of debate here, it wasn't my intent.
regardless, Doge can be used as a payment for merch from Tesla.com and if it's possible to buy something of greater significance at the end of the year from Tesla or another qualifying company on the list it resolves yes.