Related questions
Twitter is dead. Threads wins.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/17/23829098/twitter-x-com-url-links-switch
Resolver please remember to beware facebook's self-reported usage metrics. Remember that time they straight out lied about video metrics and remember that they patched this into instagram so "daily use" might just mean reading one bad algorithmic tweet recommendation that's leaked into their instagram notifications or something useless and incomparable like that.
@makoyass I agree that Meta (and other social media companies such as X) are incentivized to report heavily massaged or aggressive user metrics.
Since Meta has already been caught I believe they are likely to be more cautious in their reporting while X is likely more reckless, especially given the precarious financial position it is in, but third-party analysis should be used in resolving this market.
I’ve been sharing X posts rather than threads because Manifold doesn’t allow embeds from threads, but here’s one:
X Reports Updated EU User Counts:
That’s up from 130 million monthly active users in February. The last claim from X was 250 million daily active users.
One anecdote, ands it’s US only but still:
Threads now has more daily active users in the US than X (Twitter).
User Growth Comparison: According to data from Apptopia, Threads has surpassed X in daily active users (DAUs) in the US and has maintained this trend since December of the previous year. Currently, Threads ranks third in the Apple App Store for free app downloads, while X is in the 41st position. In the Google Play Store, Threads is ranked 12th among free apps, and X is in the 44th place.🧵1/4
“X (formerly Twitter) could be facing a ban in Brazil, after Elon Musk’s latest decision to defy a court order to block “certain popular accounts in Brazil”
https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/x-formerly-twitter-faces-ban-brazil-over-censorship/712501/
Reopened with closing date set to the original closing date at the end of the year.
@Joshua Gonna unresolve it now myself, but I shouldn't be the one in charge of resolution since I have a position.
@Joshua Not that I’m losing my conviction in my yes position, but it seems like a clear conflict of interest for the largest no position holder to be intervening against the market creator’s resolution rather than requesting mods to make the decision.
@TP8ac2 Understandable, but the precedent is very much that objective markets can't be N/A-ed for no reason. I did leave it frozen until other mods can take a look at the situation though, I didn't fully re-open it.
@Tenoke I mean, usually people do this when they want to not be on the website anymore. Which is perfectly fine, of course.
@Joshua sure, but if they do end up not leaving Id think they shouldn't be allowed to make more markets due to being unreliable.
@Tenoke We don't have any rules against that, as far as I'm aware, what we do have is a rating system where you can leave bad reviews.
@Joshua My understanding is you can always push resolution to the mods? Which I fully intend to do (en masse) if I ever did decide to quit entirely.
@ZviMowshowitz yes. it doesn't even require intention, if you just stop using manifold, your markets will be resolved by mods
@Tenoke We have star ratings for this purpose, no need for a ban hammer. People with high star ratings should be shamelessly copying markets by low star creators. Reputation matters and liquidity should flow to the most reputable market creators.