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Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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Music AI Race

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ACX 2024 

Hard Forkasts

Sign up limited to users confirming they are 18+ years of age (or age of majority in applicable jurisdictions)

'18':9 'age':12,14 'applic':18 'confirm':6 'jurisdict':19 'limit':3 'major':16 'sign':1 'user':5 'year':10

The primary type of currency/credit on Manifold is play-money (i.e. Mana, like Fliff Coins)

'coin':16 'currency/credit':5 'fliff':15 'i.e':12 'like':14 'mana':13 'manifold':7 'money':11 'play':10 'play-money':9 'primari':2 'type':3

A second type of currency/credit on Manifold is sweepstakes entries redeemable for real cash prizes (i.e. Prize Points, like Fliff Cash)

'cash':14,21 'currency/credit':5 'entri':10 'fliff':20 'i.e':16 'like':19 'manifold':7 'point':18 'prize':15,17 'real':13 'redeem':11 'second':2 'sweepstak':9 'type':3

A third type of currency/credit exists on Manifold that is similar in nature to Fliff’s Experience Points (XP)

'currency/credit':5 'exist':6 'experi':17 'fliff':15 'manifold':8 'natur':13 'point':18 'similar':11 'third':2 'type':3 'xp':19

The ratio of Prize Points to USD is 1:1 (like $1 Fliff Cash is redeemable to $1 USD)

'1':9,10,12,18 'cash':14 'fliff':13 'like':11 'point':5 'prize':4 'ratio':2 'redeem':16 'usd':7,19

There is a game mode toggle that enables users to change between playing "games" with Mana and playing "games" with Prize Points

'chang':11 'enabl':8 'game':4,14,19 'mana':16 'mode':5 'play':13,18 'point':22 'prize':21 'toggl':6 'user':9

The minimum prize redemption amount (i.e. cashing out Prize Points) is equivalent to $50 USD

'50':14 'amount':5 'cash':7 'equival':12 'i.e':6 'minimum':2 'point':10 'prize':3,9 'redempt':4 'usd':15

Prize Points may be redeemed only every 5 days

'5':8 'day':9 'everi':7 'may':3 'point':2 'prize':1 'redeem':5

'earn':5 'interest':6 'point':2 'prize':1

Prize Points expire after 30 days of inactivity (i.e. not logging in)

'30':5 'day':6 'expir':3 'i.e':9 'inact':8 'log':11 'point':2 'prize':1

The majority of “games” on Manifold are about sports

'game':4 'major':2 'manifold':6 'sport':9

Users are not allowed to participate in “games” on Manifold when located in Idaho

'allow':4 'game':8 'idaho':14 'locat':12 'manifold':10 'particip':6 'user':1

Users are not allowed to participate in “games” on Manifold when located in Washington

'allow':4 'game':8 'locat':12 'manifold':10 'particip':6 'user':1 'washington':14

Non-US residents are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

'allow':7 'non':2 'non-us':1 'particip':9 'resid':4 'sweepstak':11 'us':3

Residents of Idaho are not allowed to participate in participate in sweepstakes

'allow':6 'idaho':3 'particip':8,10 'resid':1 'sweepstak':12

Residents of Hawaii are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

'allow':6 'hawaii':3 'particip':8 'resid':1 'sweepstak':10

Residents of Nevada are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

'allow':6 'nevada':3 'particip':8 'resid':1 'sweepstak':10

Residents of Tennessee are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

'allow':6 'particip':8 'resid':1 'sweepstak':10 'tennesse':3

Residents of Washington are not allowed to participate in sweepstakes

'allow':6 'particip':8 'resid':1 'sweepstak':10 'washington':3

Prize Points Free Collection Method #1: Prize Points are obtainable for free as a bonus when collecting free Mana

'1':6 'bonus':15 'collect':4,17 'free':3,12,18 'mana':19 'method':5 'obtain':10 'point':2,8 'prize':1,7

Prize Points Free Collection Method #2: Prize Points are obtainable for free as a bonus when purchasing Mana

'2':6 'bonus':15 'collect':4 'free':3,12 'mana':18 'method':5 'obtain':10 'point':2,8 'prize':1,7 'purchas':17

Prize Points Free Collection Method #3: Prize Points are obtainable for free when entering no-cost giveaway contests on Manifold social media pages

'3':6 'collect':4 'contest':19 'cost':17 'enter':14 'free':3,12 'giveaway':18 'manifold':21 'media':23 'method':5 'no-cost':15 'obtain':10 'page':24 'point':2,8 'prize':1,7 'social':22

Prize Points Free Collection Method #4: Prize Points are obtainable for free by sending a request by mail

'4':6 'collect':4 'free':3,12 'mail':18 'method':5 'obtain':10 'point':2,8 'prize':1,7 'request':16 'send':14

Mail requests for free Prize Points must be entirely handwritten

'entir':9 'free':4 'handwritten':10 'mail':1 'must':7 'point':6 'prize':5 'request':2

Mail requests for free Prize Points are be granted Prize Points in an amount roughly equivalent to $10 USD each

'10':18 'amount':14 'equival':16 'free':4 'grant':9 'mail':1 'point':6,11 'prize':5,10 'request':2 'rough':15 'usd':19

Mail requests for free Prize Points are limited to a maximum of 50 per user

'50':13 'free':4 'limit':8 'mail':1 'maximum':11 'per':14 'point':6 'prize':5 'request':2 'user':15

Residents of Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, and Ohio may only obtain Prize Points through Free Collection Methods #1 and #3 (see those answers for descriptions)

'1':23 '3':25 'alabama':3 'answer':28 'collect':21 'descript':30 'free':20 'georgia':4 'iowa':5 'kentucki':6 'louisiana':7 'may':14 'method':22 'michigan':8 'minnesota':9 'mississippi':10 'montana':11 'obtain':16 'ohio':13 'point':18 'prize':17 'resid':1 'see':26

Identity verification is required for participation in sweepstakes

'ident':1 'particip':6 'requir':4 'sweepstak':8 'verif':2

Manifold uses Persona (withpersona.com) for identity verification

'ident':6 'manifold':1 'persona':3 'use':2 'verif':7 'withpersona.com':4

Prize Points collected for free are not immediately available for redemption of a prize and must be used in a game first

'avail':9 'collect':3 'first':22 'free':5 'game':21 'immedi':8 'must':16 'point':2 'prize':1,14 'redempt':11 'use':18

Prize Points collected for free must be used in a game where the odds of winning have an implied probability of 75% or less before eligible for redemption of a prize

'75':22 'collect':3 'elig':26 'free':5 'game':11 'impli':19 'less':24 'must':6 'odd':14 'point':2 'prize':1,31 'probabl':20 'redempt':28 'use':8 'win':16

Users can use Prize Points to play sweepstakes games that reward them more Prize Points

'game':9 'play':7 'point':5,15 'prize':4,14 'reward':11 'sweepstak':8 'use':3 'user':1

Before redeeming any prize, users must complete a Know-Your-Customer (KYC) Verification process that includes proof of 1) valid photo ID, 2) biometric facial scan recognition, 3) proof of address, and 4) validation of SSN

'1':20 '2':24 '3':29 '4':34 'address':32 'biometr':25 'complet':7 'custom':12 'facial':26 'id':23 'includ':17 'know':10 'know-your-custom':9 'kyc':13 'must':6 'photo':22 'prize':4 'process':15 'proof':18,30 'recognit':28 'redeem':2 'scan':27 'ssn':37 'user':5 'valid':21,35 'verif':14

Manifold reserves the right to limit sweepstakes entries or exclude users from participating who they deem as “professional”, “non-recreational” or similar

'deem':16 'entri':8 'exclud':10 'limit':6 'manifold':1 'non':20 'non-recr':19 'particip':13 'profession':18 'recreat':21 'reserv':2 'right':4 'similar':23 'sweepstak':7 'user':11

Users in New York and Florida cannot redeem more than $5,000 USD in prizes in the defined sweepstakes period

'000':12 '5':11 'cannot':7 'defin':18 'florida':6 'new':3 'period':20 'prize':15 'redeem':8 'sweepstak':19 'usd':13 'user':1 'york':4

The sweepstakes period is defined as a single calendar month

'calendar':9 'defin':5 'month':10 'period':3 'singl':8 'sweepstak':2

Manifold reserves a right to deactivate your account if inactive for 12 months

'12':12 'account':8 'deactiv':6 'inact':10 'manifold':1 'month':13 'reserv':2 'right':4

Manifold reserves a right to limit users from redeeming more than $1,000 USD per week in prizes

'000':13 '1':12 'limit':6 'manifold':1 'per':15 'prize':18 'redeem':9 'reserv':2 'right':4 'usd':14 'user':7 'week':16

Additional verification procedures are required for users reaching $600+ in cumulative prizes

'600':9 'addit':1 'cumul':11 'prize':12 'procedur':3 'reach':8 'requir':5 'user':7 'verif':2

Manifold reserves a right to consider users in debt to Manifold if Manifold mistakenly awards Prize Points that the user redeems prior to Manifold correcting the mistake

'award':15 'consid':6 'correct':25 'debt':9 'manifold':1,11,13,24 'mistak':27 'mistaken':14 'point':17 'prior':22 'prize':16 'redeem':21 'reserv':2 'right':4 'user':7,20

Manifold reserves a right to use for promotional/media purposes any of the following details of users participating in sweepstakes: name, likeness, photograph, voice, opinions and/or hometown and state/province/territory

'and/or':25 'detail':14 'follow':13 'hometown':26 'like':21 'manifold':1 'name':20 'opinion':24 'particip':17 'photograph':22 'promotional/media':8 'purpos':9 'reserv':2 'right':4 'state/province/territory':28 'sweepstak':19 'use':6 'user':16 'voic':23

Manifold provides a list of sweepstakes winners upon request via mail

'list':4 'mail':11 'manifold':1 'provid':2 'request':9 'sweepstak':6 'upon':8 'via':10 'winner':7

Purchase of Mana is not required to continue playing “games” on Manifold - if your balance of Mana is insufficient to continue playing “games” on Manifold, you will be provided instructions to receive sufficient Mana to continue playing

'balanc':15 'continu':8,21,36 'game':10,23 'instruct':30 'insuffici':19 'mana':3,17,34 'manifold':12,25 'play':9,22,37 'provid':29 'purchas':1 'receiv':32 'requir':6 'suffici':33

Employees and former employees of Manifold and their immediate family and household members are not eligible to participate in “games” on Manifold

'elig':16 'employe':1,4 'famili':10 'former':3 'game':20 'household':12 'immedi':9 'manifold':6,22 'member':13 'particip':18

Employees and former employees of Manifold and their immediate family and household members are not eligible to collect Prize Points

'collect':18 'elig':16 'employe':1,4 'famili':10 'former':3 'household':12 'immedi':9 'manifold':6 'member':13 'point':20 'prize':19

💙 Manifold

Manifold Features

Manifold Users

Manifold Business Future

Manifold Drama

Pivot Predictions

Prize Points

'fix':1 'market':6 'mc':5 're':3 're-resolv':2 'resolv':4

Spoiler support for serialized media/sports

'media/sports':5 'serial':4 'spoiler':1 'support':2

Manifold Sports Page like Manifold Politics 

'like':4 'manifold':1,5 'page':3 'polit':6 'sport':2

'ai':2 'like':4 'manifold':1,5 'page':3 'polit':6

Expanded Poll Features (Approval voting, Ranked Choice, Secret Vote, etc)

'approv':4 'choic':7 'etc':10 'expand':1 'featur':3 'poll':2 'rank':6 'secret':8 'vote':5,9

Changing the default bet type from market orders to limit orders

'bet':4 'chang':1 'default':3 'limit':10 'market':7 'order':8,11 'type':5

Re-designing market pages with an alternate display intended for VIEWERS instead of BETTORS

'altern':8 'bettor':15 'design':3 'display':9 'instead':13 'intend':10 'market':4 'page':5 're':2 're-design':1 'viewer':12

Early "No" Resolution for Linked Multiple Choice options

'choic':7 'earli':1 'link':5 'multipl':6 'option':8 'resolut':3

Personalized recommendations: User interest x Market Quality Signals

'interest':4 'market':6 'person':1 'qualiti':7 'recommend':2 'signal':8 'user':3 'x':5

Change new trader bonus to be smaller but on new traders per day

'bonus':4 'chang':1 'day':13 'new':2,10 'per':12 'smaller':7 'trader':3,11

Separate Conditional/Decision Market Type

'conditional/decision':2 'market':3 'separ':1 'type':4

'ad':1 'like':4 'option':6 'post':5 'tweet':3 'tweet-lik':2

The ability to sort answers in MC markets by trader count and volume

'abil':2 'answer':5 'count':11 'market':8 'mc':7 'sort':4 'trader':10 'volum':13

Futarchy (clear targets, markets on what optimizes them, and they decide what gets done)

'clear':2 'decid':11 'done':14 'futarchi':1 'get':13 'market':4 'optim':7 'target':3

Whole-market leaderboards for MC markets and Topics too

'leaderboard':4 'market':3,7 'mc':6 'topic':9 'whole':2 'whole-market':1

Either: comment reacts and/or a Karma(ish) system for comment interactions on markets 

'and/or':4 'comment':2,10 'either':1 'interact':11 'ish':7 'karma':6 'market':13 'react':3 'system':8

'feed':4 'level':3 'post':5 'top':2 'tweet':1

Bookmark icon for markets with share held

'bookmark':1 'held':7 'icon':2 'market':4 'share':6

'aggreg':3 'forecast':4 'metaculus':1 'style':2

2024

Manifold doesn't launch real money prizes in 2024

'2024':9 'doesn':2 'launch':4 'manifold':1 'money':6 'prize':7 'real':5

Manifold launches real money prizes in 2024 but does not have them at the end of 2024

'2024':7,17 'end':15 'launch':2 'manifold':1 'money':4 'prize':5 'real':3

Manifold has real money prizes at the end of 2024

'2024':10 'end':8 'manifold':1 'money':4 'prize':5 'real':3

Manifold Sweepstakes